By: Gilarsi Wahju Setijono

Try, imagine a moment: You are an energy engineer who just presented the Indonesian Energy Transition Roadmap 2045 in front of the ministers. On the projector screen, the stunning numbers are stunning-the GW Geothermal Potential, Solar PV is more than 550 GW, Hydropower up to 100 GW. Then there is also the newcomer, Thorium Molten Salt Reactor (TSMR), which is claimed to be a "game changer" with 20 reactors with a capacity of 500 MW. The total? Enough to illuminate the entire archipelago many times.

But when the presentation was finished, a minister asked with a skeptical face: "This all sounds fantastic on paper, but why do we still depend on dirty coal for 60% national electricity?" You are silent for a moment, realizing that behind all the glamorous figures hidden the most painful paradoxes in the history of Indonesian energy: rich in potential, poor realization.

Wealth Fairy Tale That Never Liquid

Indonesia, as a country that is often called "natural renewable energy laboratory", has everything. Like the character of the Kabayan in the Sundanese story who dreamed of finding treasure, we also dreamed with lucrative potential numbers. Geothermal? We are number two world. Solar? The tropical sun shines 12 hours a day throughout the year. Hydro? Thousands of rivers flowed from Sabang to Merauke. Thorium? Our thorium deposit is enough to provide electricity throughout Southeast Asia.

But like the dream of the Kabayan who always ends with waking up on a pandanus mat, our energy reality always ends with a bitter reality: of the 24 my geothermal potential, only 2,100 MW has been realized. Of the 550 my potential solar, less than 1 I operate. Hydropower with my 100 potential? Only 6+ I walked. While TSMR is claimed to be revolutionary? Still in the form of a prototype that will be completed 2028 - if lucky.

Javanese proverb says, "Just Adigang, Adigung, Adiguna" - do not be arrogant with strength, greatness, and ability. But we are actually trapped in the opposite syndrome: "Just Potential Adigang, Adigung Data, Adiguna Projection." We are arrogant with potential, but forgetting that potential without execution is just a beautiful number on paper.

thorium: Savior or misdirection?

The entry of TSMR in the Indonesian energy narrative adds to the complexity of this dilemma. In theory, this technology looks like the answer to all prayers: stable base-loads, carbon emissions almost zero, radioactive waste less than conventional uranium, and can be mass produced at a cheaper cost than coal. With 20 reactors with a capacity of 500 MW, TSMR can contribute 78.8 TWH per year - about 14% of the renewable energy target 2045.

But wait a minute. This is not a film Science Fiction where futuristic technology immediately came true with one click. The reality of TSMR is far more complicated than optimistic projections on paper. Initial investment that reached tens of billions of dollars per reactor, nuclear regulations that are still gray, specialist human resources that can be calculated with fingers, supply chain thorium that does not yet exist, and the most crucial: public revenue that is still traumatized by the shadow of Chernobyl and Fukushima.

So when we talk about the 14% contribution of TSMR to the renewable energy target of 2045, we are like counting eggs before the chicken lay eggs - even the chicken does not yet exist. This is not excessive pessimism, but realism needed not to be trapped in the euphoria of technology without basis.

painful energy paradox

The most ironic in the context of Indonesia's energy is how we always fall in love with the most complicated solutions while ignoring the simplest. Geothermal is hampered due to the risk of exploration and high cost - even though we have 130 active volcanoes that are ready to "work." Hydropower stagnate because of environmental and social issues-even though our ancestors have built subak irrigation systems for centuries. Solar PV is stagnant because of intermittent and grid that is not ready - even though we are the equator that receive a free "subsidized" of the sun every day.

Now we add one more: TSMR which is claimed to be a future technology, while we have not mastered today technology. This is like someone who hasn't been able to ride a motorcycle but has dreamed of flying with jetpack.

Meanwhile, neighboring countries that do not have the potential for our abundant resources are actually faster transition. Singapore with an area of ​​Jakarta building a giant solar farm floating. Vietnam with geothermal potential is much smaller than us is even more aggressive in developing geothermal power plants. Malaysia with a smaller thorium deposit is even more serious about exploring nuclear technology.

Why? Because they understand one thing that we often forget: in energy transitions, the important thing is not how much potential it has, but how fast and effective execution is done. They prefer "birds in the hands" rather than "elephants in the eyelids."

From beautiful projections to bitter reality

The Net Zero Emission (NZE) 2060 target set by the government needs a miracle - or at least a revolution in national energy management. To reach 557 renewable energy twh in 2045, we need to build a capacity equivalent to 100 Java-Bali power plants every year for the next 20 years. This is not just ambition, but an impossible mission that requires a perfect synergy between policies, investment, technology, and execution.

The contribution of TSMR is 14% of the target-if it is truly realized-it is significant. But don't forget that the remaining 86% must be fulfilled by geothermal, hydro, diesel, and other renewable energy which has been stagnant. This is like relying on a reserve player to score a winning goal while the main player is still sitting on the bench.

What's even more sad is how we are always trapped in the same cycle: massive announcements, detailed roadmaps, ambitious targets, then stagnant executions. This pattern has been repeated from the Sukarno era with the jargon "Energy and Energy," the Soeharto era with the "Energy Diversification Program," the era of reforms with "energy for the people," until now with "Sustainable Energy Transition."

Maybe it's time for us to learn from the Minang proverb: "Alah can because of normal." Instead of continuing to dream with futuristic technology that may not be realized, it is better to focus on getting used to the technology that has been proven and ready to be implemented.

Chronic Disease: Poor Execution due to Poor Project Management

Before talking about technical solutions, there is one great irony that we need to discuss - irony that may be the root of all Indonesian energy transition problems. In the midst of the boisterous discussion of TSMR, Geothermal, or Solar PV technology, we forget one fundamental thing: Indonesia is never systematically serious in preparing human resources who are adept at managing complex projects.

Try to look at our higher education curriculum. The Faculty of Engineering is busy teaching students how to design nuclear reactors, but never taught how to manage reactor construction projects from A to Z. The Faculty of Economics is absorbed in discussing infrastructure investment theory, but ignoring the project management course that should be the backbone of the execution. Even the MBA program at a well-known university often treats project management as a side course, not as a core competency that determines the life and death of a strategic initiative.

The consequences? We have an engineer who can calculate how much Thorium is needed to produce 500 MW of electricity, but confused when we have to arrange a work breakdown structure to build the reactor. We have an economist who memorizes beside the net present value of renewable energy investment, but we do not understand how to manage stakeholder management so that the project does not stagnate due to conflicts of interest.

This is the most painful paradox: a country that is rich in resources and brilliant ideas, but poor execution ability because they have never seriously study the art of managing complex projects. We are like a chef who knows delicious recipes, but we don't know the correct cooking sequence - the results can be guessed: burnt outside, raw inside.

syndrome "concept experts, blind execution"

This phenomenon does not only occur in the energy sector. Just look at the track record of large Indonesian projects: from the stalled hambalang, the Jakarta LRT which is delayed for years, to the new capital city of the archipelago whose timeline has changed like the weather in Jakarta. The pattern is always the same: Grand launching with a big fanfare, then executing the stumbling because of the chaotic project management.

Why did this happen? Because our education system is more focused on printing "concept experts" than "execution experts." Students are taught to make a perfect research proposal theoretically, but not equipped with the ability to execute the research with a limited timeline, budget, and resource. They are good at making stunning powerpoint presentation, but stuttering when they have to make a realistic chart.

Compare with successful countries in energy transitions such as Denmark or Germany. They do not have greater renewable energy potential than Indonesia, but they excel in one way: the ability to manage complex projects with high discipline. Every Wind Farm or Solar Park project is executed with a strict project management - starting from feasibility study, stakeholder engagement, risk management, to commissioning and operation.

A way out of the labyrinth of the execution

If we are serious with the NALE 2060 target and TSMR contribution of 14%, then the first revolution that must be done is not in the field of technology, but in the field of project management education. Every Faculty of Engineering must require Project Management courses as Prerequisite to graduate. Each postgraduate program in the energy sector must integrate case study about project management in the Indonesian energy context.

More than that, the government needs to create a certification program for project managers in the energy sector, with international standards but adapted to the Indonesian context. Do not let us have a project manager who is adept at managing the office building construction project, but confused when we have to manage the Geothermal Plant construction project in the middle of the Sumatra forest.

For TSMR in particular, instead of directly targeting 20 reactors, start with 1-2 pilot reactors who really focus on learning by doing in the Project Management aspect. Use this pilot project as a "field school" to print a world-class project manager who understands the intricacies of managing nuclear projects in Indonesia-starting from dealing with complex regulations, managing supply chain thorium, to community communities with people who are still traumatized by the word "nuclear."

The most important: stop bad habits to make beautiful projections without realistic execution roadmaps. Each target must be accompanied by a clear project charter, detailed work breakdown structure, comprehensive risk register, and effective communication plan. Don't make the 2045 target without measurable annual milestone breakdown and accountable.

thorium and the nation's self -mirror

At the end of this reflection, TSMR is actually just a mirror of the character of the Indonesian people in facing challenges: rich in ideas, poor execution; strong discourse, weak implementation; great in theory, lag in practice.

Thorium is a metaphor for all the extraordinary potential possessed by this nation-starting from natural wealth, cultural diversity, to demographic bonuses-which often end up only as material for discussion in seminar spaces.

The most basic question is not whether TSMR can contribute 14% to the target of renewable energy 2045, but whether we as a nation are ready to change the paradigm of the "rich state of potential" to "rich country achievement."

As the Bugis proverb says, "Resopa Temmangingngnggi, Malomo Naletei Pammase Dewata" - only with hard work, we will get God's blessing. Thorium, like all other natural wealth, is just a tool. What determines whether the tool will be a blessing or curse is the quality of the hand holding it.

So, when we talk about TSMR and the Transition of Energy 2045, actually we are discussing the future of Indonesia: Will we continue to be a nation that is rich in resources but poor achievement, or will we evolve into a nation that not only talks about potential, but is also able to make it happen to real progress?

Thorium waiting for our answer. Indonesia is waiting for our choice. History will record our decision.